Austin Illini Club     

 Football

Illinois fell to 5-6 overall last week and plays Northwestern in the final regular season game of the year.  Illinois needs to win in order to become eligible to play in a bowl game.   We will watch the Illinois-Northwestern game this Saturday at Third Base at 2:15 on the Big Ten Network.

The downtown Third Base location is located at the end of 6th street as 6th street merges with 5th street into Lake Austin Blvd. at MoPac (Loop 1). From MoPac, take the 5th Street exit toward downtown, turn left at the first street, and then left again at 6th Street. From downtown, take 6th street until you almost reach MoPac, just before 6th Street veers left to merge with 5th Street and Lake Austin Blvd. Third base is located on the bottom floor of the last office building on 6th street on the left, at 1717 West 6th Street. Plenty of parking is available in the parking garage above Third Base.

Third Base is the newest Hi-Def sports bar in Austin.  Our usual location for gamewatches is the downtown location.  The new Round Rock location is at the Southeast corner of I-35 and Mo-Pac/Route 45 (the new tollway). For those with GPS, the Round Rock address is 3107 S. IH 35 Suite 810, Round Rock, Texas.  Third Base is family friendly, and kids are welcome to join us.  

2008 Football Schedule:

Click on the following links to read the Austin Illini recaps of the following 2008 games:

1. ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALLLLL?!?!?!?! (2008 Football Preview)

2. Illinois Loses Season Opener to Missouri in Impressive Shootout.

3. Illinois wins First Game in Renovated Memorial Stadium, 47-21 over Eastern Illinois

4. Illini Fall to Penn State 38-24 in close game; Travel to Michigan Next

5. "I Got Juice!"   Illinois blows out Michigan on Michigan's homecoming!

6. Illinois Comeback Falls Short Against Minnesota Despite Dominating Offensive Statistics

7. Illini Rebound Big; Crush Indiana 55-13

8. Illini Suffer Disappointing Loss to Wisconsin; Play Iowa Next

9. Illinois Beats Iowa 27-24; One Win Away From Bowl Eligibility

10. Illini Lose a Game They Shoulda Won; Fall to Western Michigan, 23-17 (But We Still Have Reasons for Optimism)

11. Illini Fall to 5-6; Need a Win Against Northwestern to Become Bowl Eligible

Click on the appropriate year for Austin Illini Recaps of the 2004,  2005, 2006, or 2007 Football Seasons

2008 Season Recaps.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALLLLL?!?!?!?!

Football Preview

August 24, 2008

Illinois starts the season this Saturday with perhaps its toughest game of the year: against Missouri. The game conflicts with the UT home opener and a few other games, but Third Base has offered to give us a section with the sound at their new location in Round Rock. So we will gather to watch the Illinois-Missouri game at 7:30 this Saturday at the new Third Base location in Round Rock. We plan to only use this location for this gamewatch due to the conflict with the UT game, and we will see how it goes for future gamewatches.

The new Round Rock location is at the Southeast corner of I-35 and Mo-Pac/Route 45 (the new tollway). For those with GPS, the address is 3107 S. IH 35 Suite 810, Round Rock, Texas.

Preview

After years of basketball dominance and football futility, the tables are turned at Illinois and Football is now in primetime. Let's put this thing in perspective. Gary is a pessimist. Gary wanted Bruce Weber fired only two years after our Final Four run, and still wants him fired a year before we see the best two recruiting classes Illinois has EVER seen, both of which Weber recruited. 

But even Gary is excited about football this year. Last year's team made a fantastic run to the Rose Bowl that surprised even the most optimistic of us. If you paid attention two years ago, you would have seen the seeds of an outbreak season. Even though we only won two games in 2006, we played many of the toughest teams very close, and we knew we had amazing talent coming in at the skill positions. But nobody thought they would end up in Pasadena. Nobody.

This year, we lose only two key starters, but they were the best we had on both offense and defense: running back Rashard Mendenhall and linebacker J Lehman. Nonetheless, college football is a game of roster turnover, and we have added some key recruits to an already stacked roster. Moreover, our underclassmen the past two years are now juniors and seniors, and they provided the backbone of last year's success.

The problem is our schedule. Last year, with the exception of playing Ohio State in Columbus, we had a rather favorable schedule: playing most of the top Big Ten teams (Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan) at home. This year, we play them on the road. Last year, we also arguably caught Ohio State by surprise at their home while they were looking forward to the next week's game against Michigan. This year, they will come to our house looking for revenge.

To top off that disadvantage, we open our season with arguably the toughest game on the schedule: against Missouri in St. Louis. Missouri is ranked 6th in the coach's poll and has its eyes on a National Championship run. Their quarterback, Chase Daniels, is on the preseason short-list of Heisman candidates. 

However, we played Missouri very tough last year, and lost only because backup quarterback Eddie McGee fumbled the ball twice and threw two interceptions. All of the turnovers came on potential scoring drives, and two of them occurred at the goalline. Moreover, on defense, our secondary was rather young and inexperienced, and Missouri was able to move the ball on offense mostly because of our soft coverage. Not only did our secondary become much stronger and tighter as the year progressed, but reports from training camp have indicated that our secondary has really improved in the off-season. (These reports sometimes amount to little more than unreliable rumors, but they are all we have.) 

So the Missouri game should be a great game.

One other reason to relish this football season: basketball will suffer even more this year. For those who have not heard already, Jamar Smith violated his probation and was summarily and permanently kicked off the team over the summer. The probation violation did not involve any driving or criminal incident; it amounted to nothing more than admitting to a police officer (while walking around) that he had drank three beers. The police officer recognized him because of his celebrity status in Champaign, and was forced to file a report when he told other officers about it, ultimately leading the State's Attorney to file a probation revocation petition. 

Contrary to when he received his DUI conviction, Jamar was over 21 this time and not underage. He also will likely not end up with significant prison time, but will spend some time in county jail and receive a longer, tougher probation. But one of the terms of his probation (and strict conditions of remaining on the team) was to not drink any alcohol, and this incident was enough to end his tenure on our basketball team.

Jamar Smith was supposed to re-inject life into our backcourt shooting, which was one of our key weaknesses last year. Our basketball team also has lost its top-two rebounders and interior scorers (Pruitt and Randle). We have two of the best recruiting classes EVER in Illinois basketball coming in 2009 and 2010, and our current underclassmen (particularly McCamey and Mike Davs) showed promise toward the end of last year, but this might still prove to be a rather long year.

I hope to see everyone for the Missouri game on Saturday at 7:30 in Round Rock.

Lawrence Page

THE Austin Illini Club.

Illinois Loses Season Opener in Impressive Shootout.

September 3, 2008

Illinois lost its season opener to Missouri, 52-42. Illinois next plays Eastern Illinois at home next Saturday. We had a good crowd at the Round Rock Third Base, but we will return to the downtown Third Base location and gather there at 11:00 to watch the home opener against Eastern Illinois this Saturday in the first game in our newly-renovated Memorial Stadium.

The downtown Third Base location is located at the end of 6th street as 6th street merges with 5th street into Lake Austin Blvd. at MoPac (Loop 1). From MoPac, take the 5th Street exit toward downtown, turn left at the first street, and then left again at 6th Street. From downtown, take 6th street until you almost reach MoPac, just before 6th Street veers left to merge with 5th Street and Lake Austin Blvd. Third base is located on the bottom floor of the last office building on 6th street on the left, at 1717 West 6th Street. Plenty of parking is available in the parking garage above Third Base.

As noted above, this game will be the first in the newly-renovated Memorial Stadium. The renovations included expanding the North endzone section, where the student section and band section was moved last year. The renovations also lowered the field last year to improve sight lines. The second stage of the renovations finished this Summer involved adding luxury suites, club-level seats, and improving the press box and amenities on top of the West Balcony. Doing so eliminated about half of the seats in the West balcony, which to some was not a welcome change, but was considered necessary to improve amenities and revenues at the stadium. Come out and watch the game with us to judge for yourself.

As for the Missouri game, two primary factors worked into the loss, and highly-touted Heisman-candidate Chase Daniels was not really a part of either of them. First, for as much attention as the position "skills" players steal all the headlines, football fundamentally still is and will always be a game of linemen. The simple fact of the game was that Missouri's lines on both offense and defense were stronger than ours. Our "skills" players played just as good--and sometimes better--than theirs. We had some of the more sensational plays on offense and defense. But the strength of their lines made the biggest difference.

Our defensive line could not get any pressure on Chase Daniels, giving him all the time in the world to make the right decision on where to throw the ball or to simply wait for receivers to get open. The only bright spot in our pass rushing was that, because Chase Daniels was so well protected and the gap between him and our defensive linemen was so big, one of our defensive linemen was able to intercept a low pass by Daniels and return it for a go-ahead touchdown in the second quarter. Good, exciting stuff; but not exactly the reason we want to see behind a touchdown: our pressure was so bad that we were in a lucky position to accidentally do something good. Our defensive line also frequently could not make the first hit on rush plays, allowing the rusher to get through to the linebackers.

On the other side of the ball, our offensive line was not as bad, but clearly had more trouble protecting Juice than Missouri's line did protecting Daniels. Our offensive line also could not open holes up for our rushers. Frequently, Missouri stopped our rushes up the middle behind the line of scrimmage, making our more-successful sweep runs around the outside more predictable.

The second main factor in the loss is that our worst fears were realized and our offense really suffered without Rashard Mendenhall: not just his ability to plow through tacklers and routinely get extra yards after first contact, but also the mere threat of him getting the ball. Dufrene did a decent job of running the ball and has a different style of running that we need to appreciate: more like Barry Sanders (small, quick, shifty, and elusive) than Rashard was (strong, tough, fast, and mobile). But without Rashard's ability to plow through the middle and get extra yards after the first contact, the dynamic nature of last year's spread offense simply was not there until it was too late in the game.

Three other less-influential factors also contributed to the loss. First, although special teams was better than two and three years ago when it frequently lost winnable games for us, special teams continued to plague us. Missouri blocked the first extra point. Our punt and kickoff coverage also continued to struggle: after Illinois took the lead (and the momentum) in the second quarter with that lineman-interception, Missouri responded by returning the ensuing kickoff untouched for a touchdown. In contrast, Missouri hit a 51-yard field goal in the second quarter that ultimately worked into the final margin of victory: without it, Illinois would have just needed one score, not two, toward the end of the game, which would have altered the play calling and momentum of the game. Missouri also covered and returned punts and kickoffs rather well. Illinois averaged 1.5 yards on their two punt returns; Missouri averaged 14.2 yards on theirs. Illinois averaged only 17 yards on 7 kickoff returns; Missouri averaged 37 yards on their 4 kickoff returns. Missouri clearly was better on special teams.

Second, although Juice played rather well in spurts, he came out rather over-excited and somewhat wasted our first two drives. He over-threw wide-open receivers on what could have been early game-breaking drives of our own that could have completely changed the complexion of the game. Even after he settled down for a few plays in the first quarter, he threw erratically in the second quarter, which gave Missouri the ball back and allowed them to pull away to an 18-point halftime lead. To over-compensate, he then started under-throwing receivers. He did recover to make some amazing passes and runs later in the game, but we needed a perfect game to beat Missouri and did not get one.

The other noteworthy criticism was that our fundamental tackling skills suffered throughout the game, giving Missouri layers extra yards and sometimes allowing them to break away for many of their touchdowns.

We did see some encouraging things from the Illini, though. First, as bad as the above synopsis might make it sound, we did play well once we got into a rhythm; the above factors more so proved to be the difference in a high-scoring game, not what allowed Missouri to roll over us completely. As Ron Zook said at the interview going into the lockeroom at halftime, we made mistakes that you normally could expect to make in a first game, but not what you can get away with against a team of Missouri's caliber.

Second, even when down 18 points (twice) and then down 25 points in the third quarter, Illinois kept fighting back and exchanging scores. On our first scoring drive out of the half, Benn caught two successive catches for 50 yards, then Juice ran for another ten, and then hit Duvalt on a 26-yard touchdown pass. After a two-point conversion to make up for the missed extra-point and another touchdown, Illinois closed the 25 point deficit to just 10 points with 13:30 left in the fourth quarter. Illinois then looked to be on the verge of closing it to only three points on its next drive, when Missouri suddenly intercepted a pass on their own 26-yard line. Illinois did not threaten the lead after that, but to keep punching like that showed spunk. Missouri won the first half by 18 points, but Illinois won the second half by 8 points. We just could not completely dig ourselves out of the hole we dug ourselves into in the first half.

Junior cornerback Vontae Davis also has really improved his game, making many sensational plays that kept the game within reach. In the first quarter, when we were already down 7-0, he broke up what should have been a game-breaking touchdown as the receiver fell to the ground with the ball in his hands. Whereas other defenders might have given up on the play, Vontae kept tugging and poking, convincing the officials even on review that the receiver did not have possession before the ball eventually popped out of his hands.

Juice and Benn also clearly bulked up in the offseason, similar to the way Mendenhall had bulked up in the offseason the previous two years. Our strength coaches are clearly doing their jobs with our position players. Both look like they put 10-20 pounds of pure muscle on, and it showed. In the first quarter, Benn collided with a rather-large, 230-pound Missouri safety just as Benn caught a 7-yard pass. Benn didn't budge as the Missouri safety crumpled backward, and Benn rolled on for an additional 18 yards after the catch, setting up our first score.

Illinois also had four sensational scoring passes. Juice' 30-yard touchdown pass to Judson in the first quarter for our first score was picture-perfect: Juice lobbed it to the sideline of the endzone where only Judson could catch it, and Judson did an amazing job keeping his foot inbounds as he caught the ball. Juice showed the same touch on two more perfect lobs to Duvalt in the third quarter, both to the middle of the endzone beyond the defender's reach. Finally, although Juice missed a wide-open Judson in the first half on a long pass play, Juice later hit a wide-open Judson for a 65-yard touchdown in the 4th quarter to close the gap to a manageable 10 points.

Juice threw for 451 yards, completing 26 of 42 attempts (62%). With Judson and Duvalt each having a two-touchdown breakout game, with Benn getting healthy and bulking up in the offseason, with Michael Hoomanawanui also catching a 5-yard touchdown pass, and with last-year-standout Jeff Cumberland returning soon from a foot injury, Illinois' passing attack has greatly improved and should get even better.

Illinois' defense also had some shining moments. In the first quarter, with the score 7-0, Missouri decided to not punt on 4th and 4. If Missouri had gotten the first down, Missouri would have likely scored. Illinois' outside linebacker also stripped a fumble at the Illini 10-yard line in the first quarter when Missouri was driving again for what could have been a game-breaking touchdown.

One final note. During each game, both schools get a commercial touting their chool. Isn't it odd that in it commercial touting Missouir, Missouri featured it's relatively new cheer--a not-so-subtle rip-off of the Illini's I-L-L, I-N-I chant--by intentionally misspelling "Missouri:" "M-I-Z, Z-O-U?" Shouldn't a University, a bastion of higher education, NOT emphasize slang misspellings? They are not the "Mizzous," they are the "Tigers." It was just an odd thing I noticed.

Oh, and one other happy note for our gamewatch regulars: Alida (now living in Chicago) has a new boyfriend!

Lawrence Page

THE Austin Illini

Illinois wins First Game in Renovated Memorial Stadium, 47-21 over Eastern Illinois

September 10, 2008

Illinois won its first game at the newly-renovated Memorial Stadium by easily defeating Eastern Illinois 47-21. Illinois next plays Louisiana-Lafayette in Champaign. We will gather at Third Base (downtown) to watch the game agaisnt ULL this Saturday at 11:00 a.m. The game is only available on the Big Ten Network.

Although Hurricane Ike dominates the headlines and prompted UT to postpone the UT-Arkansas football game, we are still going to have our gamewatch as usual. The current forecast calls for Ike to head North and then Northeast from Houston, thereby only glancing Austin (and even then mostly after the game), giving us 20-35 mph wind gusts (nothing compared to possible 120 mph gusts in Houston) and some rain. Third Base also has covered parking. They understandably canceled the UT game mostly to release hotels for evacuees and to not unnecessarily clog roadways with football traffic. (If anyone hosted evacuees from Rita, you will remember how impossible driving to Austin was that weekend: the commonly 2 1/2 hour drive took anywhere from 10-18 hours.) I have invited the Houston Illini evacuees to join us for the game if they come to Austin, but I am not sure how many will even get the message, no less attend. We of course wish them the best and hope they all are safe.

The Eastern Illinois game was close in the first half, but then became a blowout in the second half after Illinois started clicking better on offense and simply wore Eastern Illinois out.

The key turnaround play came in the middle of the second quarter, with Illinois only up 13-7. After driving down the field to the Illinois 6 yard-line, Eastern decided to go for it on 4th and 1. Illinois stopped their fourth-down run for a loss to take the ball over on downs. From there, Illinois scored six unanswered touchdowns (one on the ensuing 93-yard drive plus another before halftime and then four after halftime) to extend the lead to 47-7 midway through the fourth quarter.

Eastern scored two touchdowns in scrub time (one off a third-team fumble recovery deep in our territory) to make the final score look a bit better at 47-21, but it really was not that close. Illinois put most of its second and third team players in the game in the fourth quarter, and could have run the score up even more.

After being mildly-maligned by some for not running the ball enough against Missouri, Juice ran for a career-high 174 yards against Eastern Illinois. Dufrene ran for another 99 yards, and Illinois rushers altogether ran for just under 400 yards (399). Eastern's rushers combined for 176 yards: less than half the yards Illinois compiled. Illinois also outgained Eastern in the air.

Although they certainly did not impact the outcome, the one downside was that we had several sloppy turnovers. The good news is that we did a good job of making up for each turnover. The first interception came in the first quarter with the game tied at 7. Eastern returned the interception to the Illinois 37 and looked to take the lead. However, Illinois intercepted the back right back on the ensuing play, and the offense marched down the field for its first of two field goals.

The first fumble came in the third quarter just as the Illini were about to score again with the score already 40-7 in the third quarter, Juice fumbled the ball at the Eastern 1 yard-line. Eastern drove to midfield, lost the ball on its own fumble, and Illinois drove back downfield for another touchdown as if the fumble did not happen. In a sense, the fumble amounted to merely taking some more time off the clock before we scored again.

Illinois did not need to make up for the fumble returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter because they remained up by 47-21.

Overall, Illinois lost three fumbles and two interceptions, and Eddie McGee also fumbled another time in the fourth quarter without losing the ball. But we still blew them out and played well.

Louisiana Lafayette will prove a somewhat tougher opponent this week, but the game should amount to another tune-up before Illinois heads into a bye week to prepare for the Big Ten opener at Penn State on the 27th.

Lawrence Page

THE Austin Illini Club

Illini Fall to #6 Penn State; Face Michigan in "The Big House" this Saturday.

September 29, 2008

Illinois lost to Penn State 38-24 to drop to 2-2 on the year. Illinois travels next to Michigan, which beat pre-season Big Ten favorite Wisconsin last week. We will gather at Third Base again this Saturday at 2:15 to watch the Michigan game. I will be in Colorado, but Sandy promises she will be there, and she's more fun, anyway.

As with last week's game, the regional ABC feed on KVUE will show the Big 12 game (Texas Tech vs Kansas State), not the Illinois-Michigan game. The only way to watch the Illinois game is through the non-regional feed, which Third Base will have for us.

One other note before I give you some more bathroom reading material. Given how popular Third Base is, we have had some trouble reserving tables, and it is our (my) fault. Third Base has been very accommodating making room for us when we arrive (even booting other customers from their tables to make room for us), which has been great, but we need to start showing up earlier for our games like the other alumni gamewatch clubs do. Doing so will help us keep a great relationship with Third Base. Of course, it’s really easy for me to say so when I will be in Colorado this weekend, but it reached a point last week where it became obvious we need to show up at least fifteen minutes for our gamewatches. I know that means we might need to actually TALK with each other a bit more before the games start, but, hey, George and Sandy are really friendly, and if you open with a compliment, I am sure they will love you, too.

Penn State Recap

As for the Penn State loss, the amazing part about the game was that despite being out-played in virtually every aspect of the game, and despite getting the short end of the officiating, Illinois only lost by two touchdowns, and remained within one score until 9 minutes left in the game: and even then, the outcome was not certain. It was not a blowout that looked closer than it was because of scrub-time touchdowns; it was a two-touchdown victory that was much closer than it looked.

The game started out great. In the midst of a "White-Out" (Penn State's equivalent of our "Paint the Stadium Orange" nights) and 107,000 enthusiastic, screaming fans, we stopped Penn State's opening drive, then marched right down the field to score the first touchdown. They answered with a touchdown of their own, and we marched right back down the field to take the lead right back. Two great teams pounding each other, and we were up by a touchdown.

Then, our offense sputtered. Despite scoring touchdowns on our first two possessions with solid, sustained drives, we ended the next 6 possessions on punts, turnovers, or downs (one failed 4th down conversion, and one field goal miss). The ensuing, seventh drive broke the scoreless streak in the third quarter, but only with a field goal, and that only after we recovered a fumble deep in Penn State territory and could only move the ball 2 yards before kicking the field goal. We remained in striking distance for most of the game, but Penn State simply is too good a football team to fall behind for that long.

The refs also might have gotten into Illinois' heads. Illinois only had 5 penalties for 40 yards, but they all were costly, and some of them quite questionable, especially because Penn State was called for only one penalty, and then only very, very late in the fourth quarter when it didn’t matter. Several key first downs were called back for holding penalties that either were not holding (one where Dufrene simply pushed his defender backwards onto his butt) or did not affect the play. On defense, Illinois got flagged for a "horsecollar" tackle (grabbing the shoulderpads and running the risk of injuring the runner's neck) that only grabbed jersey, and a Penn State defender did not get called for a true horsecollar tackle on Dufrene a few drives later.

Special teams also cost us dearly, again. First, after we matched Penn State's third-quarter field goal with one of our own to keep the score within one touchdown, Penn State ran the ensuing kickoff (untouched) back for a touchdown. Our offense and defense had been matching them blow-for-blow, and special teams just gave a touchdown away. Discouraging at best. Special teams generally did not do a good job covering kicks or punts. As Ron Zook tried to explain, "The kickoff coverage -- that I'm just pulling my hair out on that one. I don't understand that."

Nonetheless, Penn State played really well and deserved to win the game. Derrick Williams (#2) had an amazing game for Penn State. He rushed for a touchdown, caught a touchdown, and returned a kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown. He wasn't just like Chris Carter, either (who all he did was catch touchdowns); he was a monster between the endzones, as well. It seemed like every time Illinois was starting to hold on defense, Williams would break free throughout the middle for a 20-30 yard play. He also seemed to be mismatched against Martez Wilson (our #2), who always seemed to be two or three steps behind Williams when he made his breakout rushes or catches up the middle.

Some have asked what happened to Jeff Cumberland--a big, tough tight end who shifted to wide receiver last year after a few big breakout games. I kept wondering where Cumberland was all game, myself, and even checked all the injury reports and pregame notes to see if he re-injured his foot or something. (Turns out he was there all along). Some have even criticized Juice for not looking for Cumberland and for keying on Benn too much because Cumberland was open but unnoticed a few notable times.

However, contrary to what some have said, Juice does do a good job of spreading the ball around, and Cumberland's lack of input does not account for why we lost the game. The box scores for each game reveal that, except for the Louisiana game (where La. was throwing the ball disproportionately more to catch up and stop the clock, and we were running to run the clock out), we have as many or more receivers in play than our opponents. In particular, Judson, Duvalt, and Hoomanawanui have had breakout games so far and have already doubled their contribution for all of last year; they were barely a part of the offense last year. (During all of last year, Judson had 6 catches, Duvalt none, and Hoomanawanui had only 6). That is where Cumberland's production has gone: to other receivers.

Also, Cumberland only had a few big games last year; he was not a consistent part of the offense then or now. He scored only 3 touchdowns all year, and actually caught 4 fewer passes than in 2006. We were just paying closer attention to some of the bigger plays he made last year. He might have off the field issues that make him a second-half of the season player. I suspect we might see more of Cumberland soon, but to say that his absence has to do with our struggles not accurate or fair.

Our struggles have to do with facing two of the best teams of the country in the first four games. Penn State moved up to #6 in both polls as a result of the victory. Illinois has only lost to two of the best teams in the country: #3 Missouri and #6 Penn State. If you are going to lose, which almost every team in the country is going to do each year, those are the teams to which you should lose.

"I Got Juice!"   Illinois blows out Michigan on Michigan's homecoming

October 5, 2008

Illinois beat Michigan 45-20, at Michigan, on their homecoming, in front of 109,750 fans. Illinois earned every bit of it, and it could have been worse for Michgan but for our benevolent mercy. (That really feels good to read, doesn't it?) Illinois is 3-2 on the season, with the two losses coming to two of the top6 teams in the country. Illinois next hosts Minnesota for its own homecoming this Saturday. We will gather at Third Base to watch the Minnesota game at 10:40 on Saturday.

The Illinois-Minnesota game conflicts with another game some of you might have heard about this week: Texas-OU, also starting at 11:00. Third Base has promised us the sound in the pool room, but only if we show up in sufficient numbers. If UT fans start crowding into the pool room and we do not have enough people, we will lose the sound. So please show up early (10:30 if possible), and we can watch both games side by side.  Again, I know that means we might need to actually TALK with each other a bit more before the games start, but, hey, George and Sandy are really friendly, and if you open with a compliment, I am sure they will love you, too.   It should be a great game-day atmosphere. 

Michigan recap: "I got Juice."

That's "I" as in the I-Block logo, meaning "Illinois' got Juice." It was the slogan Juice posted on several Internet bulletin boards two years ago as a high school senior to reassure Illini fans that he would not renege on his commitment to Illinois despite Illinois going 2-10... just two years ago.

Juice had his coming out party last year, but this performance will bring him even more attention. Juice broke two all-purpose yardage records last Saturday by rushing and throwing for 431 all-purpose yards: 1) Red Grange's record for the most all-purpose yards accumulated by any Illinois player, ever; and 2) Tony Easton's record for the most all-purpose yards put together at Michigan stadium... ever. He made fantastic decisions both running and passing the ball, he waited for blockers when running, sat in the pocket when passing, evaded the rush when the pocket collapsed, threw the ball perfectly downfield, lofted some screen passes with amazing touch and precision, threw the ball away when necessary, and generally had an all-around perfect game.

Illinois amassed 501 yards of total offense: just under twice Michigan's total until Michigan they padded their yardage a bit with a meaningless, scoreless drive to end the game (261 yards before the drive; 301 yards after it). Illinois more than doubled up Michigan's score, and easily could have run the score up even more in the fourth quarter.

Reading the above synopsis, you might think it was a run-away blowout. But it didn't start out that way. The first quarter was horrible, with Illinois coming out flat and lethargic: as if they didn't know they had a game that day. Michigan scored two quick touchdowns, which Illinois could only match with a long-range, 48-yard field goal. The offense sputtered, and the defense played loose and sloppy. Michigan jumped to an easy 14-3 lead in the first quarter. It did not look good, and it did not look that close.

Then Illinois' defense stepped up and Michigan's offense sputtered. After scoring fairly easily on two of their first three drives in the first quarter (and having a field goal blocked on the other), Michigan did not score again until the fourth quarter, after Illinois had rattled off four unanswered touchdowns, pushing the score to 31-14 in the fourth quarter. After going ahead 14-3, Michigan punted seven drives in a row, and then fumbled on the next drive before finally scoring again.

Illinois had no turnovers, but forced two fourth-quarter fumbles, both leading to touchdowns.

Special teams did not give up any points and did not back us up against our own goal line.

Senior Brit Miller had another sensational game at linebacker. On one series, he sacked Michigan's quarterback twice in a row, pushing them back 25 yards. Like J Lehman did last year, he leads the Big Ten in tackles.

Rejus Benn also led Illinois receivers with 122 yards on 6 catches.

Jeff Cumberland finally showed up with a 77-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter. (Although he did have two critical penalties, which might help explain to some why he has not received more playing time.)

More tidbits are in the FightingIllini.com game notes for this week: http://fightingillini.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100708aab.html. I thought about attaching a 200 gig PDF with these game notes, but figured you probably know how to click a link and read it, yourselves, if you want.

Illinois remained unranked, likely because Michigan fell to 2-3 and has struggled this year. However, Michigan is better than its record; we just started playing after the first quarter and are that much better this year. Michigan started a freshman quarterback, and freshmen led their team in receiving and rushing. Rich Rodriguez looked like an absolute jerk yelling angrily at his players all game (making the victory that much more appropriate), but he has some talent at Michigan that won't go away too soon.

Lawrence Page

THE Austin Illini Club

October 13, 2008

Illinois lost a tough game against Minnesota last Saturday 27-20. Illinois next plays Indiana this Saturday Night. We will gather at Third Base to watch the Indiana game at 6:30 on Saturday night on the Big Ten Network.

The Indiana game again conflicts with the Texas-Missouri game, but Third Base has agreed to give us the pool room with the sound like last week. So we can watch both games side-to-side and not miss anything. Please arrive early so we can secure our spot and not make it difficult for Third Base to set aside space for us, given that they will be swamped with angry, feisty Texas fans.

As for the Minnesota game, what a disappointment! Illinois earned a rare but well-deserved win at Michigan the previous week, and follows it up with a home loss against Minnesota. Minnesota is better this year than its reputation, but that was a game we should have won, and we have no one to blame but ourselves.

The game came down to four key moments that all went against us: we committed two turnovers inside our own ten yard-line, leading to two Minnesota touchdowns; and we blew two goal-line stands where we had the ball on the Minnesota goal line and could not punch the ball into the end zone. Those four possessions amounted to a four-touchdown swing in Minnesota's favor. If those four possessions go our way, we would have won easily 34-13. If they only go 50-50, we still would have won the game by a touchdown. Those plays also changed the complexion of the game, giving Minnesota additional, much-needed confidence on the road and undermining our still-tenuous team confidence.

Statistically, this game should have been a blowout in our favor. Illinois out-gained Minnesota by 238 yards: 550 to 312. Juice threw for 462 yards, and ran for an additional 41 yards. Regus Benn had a career-high 181 receiving yards. Illinois gained 25 first downs compared to Minnesota's 16. But when Illinois gives away two touchdowns and then also fails to score touchdowns, themselves, after driving the entire length of the field, statistical domination does not matter.

Illinois even committed fewer penalties than Minnesota: 5 for 46 yards compared to 6 for 59 yards for Minnesota. However, those Illinois penalties came at critical moments, especially including the opening drive which set the tone for the game. Illinois kicked the ball out of bounds to start the game, giving Minnesota opening field position at the 40. Then, on the first play from scrimmage, Martez Wilson immediately tackles the rusher by the facemask: a clear 15-yard personal foul, giving Minnesota the ball inside the Illinois 45 without Minnesota even needing to make a play.

Even despite the turnovers, failed goal line stands, key penalties, and a 20-6 fourth-quarter deficit, Illinois nonetheless rallied from that 20-6 fourth-quarter deficit to bring the score to 27-20, and then stripped a fumble to start its final drive at midfield with 2:31 left to play. It looked like Illinois might pull out the victory despite deserving to lose.

Illinois marched down to the Minnesota 25 with another 1:30 left to play. But then a Minnesota player knocked Juice's arm as he threw for the end zone, the ball wobbling haplessly like a lame duck in the air, and another defender intercepted it to seal the game. Illinois did get the ball back at its own 33 with 33 seconds left to play, but could only drive to the Minnesota 45 before running out of time.

So where do we go from here? In the words of Al, is it still even worth following Illinois sports? I feel disheartened, too, but it is not yet time to cash in the season, and it will be interesting to see how this team rebounds from this loss.

Remember, despite our Rose Bowl finish last year, this team is still just two years removed from going 2-10. Last year, we came out flat and played inconsistently at Iowa and lost a game we clearly should have won. This loss is this year's equivalent to that Iowa loss. In contrast to last year, we have already played the two toughest teams on our schedule: Penn State and Missouri. Ohio State and Wisconsin both look much more vulnerable than preseason predictions made them look. If this team rebounds like they did last year from the Iowa loss and if this team does not take any game for granted, we can win the rest of our remaining games and return to a New Years Day bowl game.

Although we probably need to win out to get back to New Years Day, again, this is still year two of a three-year surge. Our team is stacked to peak NEXT year, not this year or last year, and our recruiting remains solid, which promises more years of stellar talent.

Lawrence Page

Austin Illini

Illini Rebound Big; Crush Indiana 55-13

October 19, 2008

Illinois rebounded off its disappointing loss to Minnesota to crush Indiana, 55-13. Illinois is 4-3 on the season, 2-2 in the Big Ten, and next travels to Madison to play Wisconsin. We will gather at Third Base (downtown) at 11:00 to watch the Illinois-Wisconsin game on ESPN2HD. (No conflict this week with the Texas game, which starts at 2:30.)

The Indiana game was remarkable only in that Illinois bounced back from its disappointing loss to Minnesota in resounding fashion. All teams will lose, and up-and-coming teams will lose bad games that they should have won. It is a part of the building process; and it happened to us last year against Iowa. What those teams do after a bad loss is what matters: do they fall apart or use it as a cementing influence to make the team stronger? This Indiana win signals that the team has not yet fallen apart; the rest of the year will show whether they are stronger. Illinois still has the same number of losses as last year (albeit including the USC loss), and can return to a major bowl game by winning out the rest of the season.

The Big Ten also is in flux, mostly due to scheduling anomalies. Penn State and Ohio State share first place at 4-0 (and play each other this weekend), but after that, perennial bottom-halfers Northwestern, Minnesota, and Michigan State share second-place at 2-1. Those three teams face comparatively easy remaining schedules, with only one game each against the top-two teams. Illinois, in comparison, plays a much tougher schedule, with a non-conference game against Missouri. We are also one of the few Big Ten teams to play both Penn State and Ohio State this year.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin, which was a pre-season top-ten team expected to contend for the Big Ten title and a BCS bowl game, is 0-4 in the Big Ten. However, two of those losses came to Ohio State and Penn State, and Wisconsin has a comparably easy remaining schedule. This week's Illinois game is pretty much a last-gasp make-it-or-break-it for the season for this Wisconsin team that has a lot of talent and came into the season with high expectations.

As for the recap of the Indiana game, in an almost perfectly-balanced box score, Illinois scored two touchdowns each quarter against Indiana, but missed one extra point in the third quarter to avoid perfect symetry. Illinois scored on its first possession in a grinding, meticulous, pedantic two-play drive--a 60-yard pass to Judson, and then a one-yard dink to Michael Hoomanawanui--and did not look back from there. Leading 28-7 at half, Illinois allowed only two field goals in the second half and even took a knee at the Indiana 10 yard-line instead of scoring another touchdown which would have extended Illinois' points into the 60s for the first time since I can remember.

Illinois somewhat rested starting running back Daniel Dufrene, opening the door for freshman running back Jason Ford to have a break-out game. Ford (#21) rushed for 172 yards and showed shades of Rashard Mendenhall's ability to manufacture significant extra yards after first contact with the defense.

Along with Juice Williams' rushing, Illinois has four proven, solid running backs in junior Daniel Dufrene, Ford, Troy Pollard (redshirt freshman), and freshman Mikel Leshoure. Pollard had three great games last year before suffering a season-ending injury and taking a medical redshirt. Mikel Leshore served as an unknown "X-Factor" who scored our first touchdown in the blowout at Michigan. So even though we do miss Rashard Mendenhall's power-rushing abilities, our rushing attack is far from depleted.

Lawrence Page

Austin Illini

Illini Suffer Disappointing Loss to Wisconsin; Play Iowa Next

October 27, 2008

Illinois lost to Wisconsin, 27-17, to drop to 2-3 in the Big Ten and 4-4 overall. Illinois hosts Iowa this Saturday. We will watch the Iowa game this Saturday at Third Base at 2:30 on ABC (non-regional).

As with the Penn State game, the regional college football broadcast at 2:30 on ABC (KXAN) will be a Big 12 game, so the only way to watch the Illinois game will be through ESPN Game Plan or a non-regional feed (via satellite), which we will have at Third Base.

Even though Illinois has been inconsistent and somewhat disappointing this year--especially after coming off last year's 9-3 regular season breakout--this season is not over, nor is it a failure yet. Again, we are only in our second season after going 2-10, and this young team is still learning how to win.

Even though this team has proven that no game can be taken lightly, Illinois only has one really tough game remaining on its schedule: against Ohio State next week. Northwestern has proven itself to be somewhat of a paper tiger by losing to Indiana last week. Iowa has lost to Pitt and Northwestern, and generally is not as strong this year. Western Michigan, although a decent mid-major team, has already lost to Nebraska and Central Michigan and has only beaten one team (Northern Illinois) with a winning record. Even if we lose to Ohio State, we can end up 7-5 on the season, and 5-4 in the Big Ten. In this year of upheaval in the Big Ten, that could be good enough to get us into the Alamo Bowl, just an hour drive South from Austin.

As for the Wisconsin game, Illinois let another game they should have won slip through their hands. Wisconsin is a better team than their record indicates, but Illinois lost this game more than Wisconsin won. We played well enough to remain in a position to win in the fourth quarter, but came up short.

Even more disheartening was that the game was tied at 10 at halftime, and Illinois opened the second half with a great, ball-control drive down the field for a touchdown. Illinois has typically played better in the second half, and with a 17-10 third-quarter lead, it looked like Illinois would be able to control this game and win it. However, Wisconsin responded immediately with a touchdown drive of its own, and then added 10 more points in the fourth quarter while Illinois failed to score again. Wisconsin scored 17 unanswered points in the second half.

Three key things led to the loss: turnovers (and the failed scoring opportunities they manifested), poor special teams, and (more generally) a lack of that intangible extra effort we saw last year.

The most critical, obvious mistakes were Juice's three interceptions, which all came at pivotal, momentum-changing points in the game. Just as we were about to score and either pull away for good or turn the game back around in our favor, Wisconsin snagged the ball back from us. Even though Wisconsin only scored two field goals off those turnovers (six of the ten point margin of victory), each turnover occurred when we had driven deep into Wisconsin territory: the first at the Wisconsin 18, the second at the Wisconsin 20, and the third at the Wisconsin 17. Each turnover reflected a squandered scoring opportunity. Moreover, two of the interceptions led to long returns of 51 and 47 yards, thereby adding to the momentum-shifting impact of the turnovers and giving Wisconsin great field position. That alone can lose a game.

Illinois also managed to gain a season-low of 307 total yards on offense (still not too shabby), and only gave up 337 yards to Wisconsin. When the offensive production is that close, but the score is not so close, two things provide the likely explanation: 1) one team took better advantage of their scoring opportunities, or 2) one team got better field position through turnovers or better special teams play. Wisconsin did both.

Our problem is not moving the ball, but scoring. In their three previous losses, Illinois racked up 532 total yards against Missouri, 372 total yards against Penn State, and 550 total yards against Minnesota. In their four wins, Illinois amassed 533 total yards against Eastern Illinois, 341 total yards against Louisiana Lafayette, 501 total yards against Michigan, and 563 total yards against Indiana. Before the Wisconsin game, their worst offensive performance came in a win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

The difference is not in amassing offensive yards, but what you do with those yards once you get in scoring position. To beat the point into the ground, as the old adage goes, you tend to win the game when you score more points than your opponent. Two touchdowns and a field goal does not beat three touchdowns and two field goals, and throwing interceptions in the red zone instead of scoring points tends to lose games.

The first point was the major contributor to the loss, but the other two made it that much more difficult. Special teams provided the second reason why we lost. Although our special teams did not give up huge plays or make ridiculously-obvious mistakes, our special teams continues to be cleared out-played by our opponents: consistently giving them better starting field position and us worse starting field position. Even if it amounts to giving up an extra 120 yards on coverage and losing ten yards on returns, that amounts to a twenty yard swing in field position, itself, which can lose games. Indeed, part of our impressive offensive stats comes from the fact that we often need to drive the length of the field given our initial starting position, whereas the other team need not drive so far.

Poor Special Teams stems from poor coaching and an inability setting up blocking and coverage schemes that control the flow of chaos during punts and kickoffs. Despite all the improvements Zook has made with this team, special teams has plagued us for too long under Zook, and the coaching staff needs to improve it. Special teams also segues nicely into the third point because poor special teams also stems from simply a shortfall of effort and focus.

The third primary reason behind the loss seems to be endemic of the difference between this season and last season. Illinois just seems to lack the extra edge and desire from last year, and this loss manifested that lack of effort. I am not talking about post-play antics where players flex their muscles and scream and shout like rap stars. Indeed, most of those "fired up" post-play antics are ridiculous and often amount to wasted energy that should be saved for DURING the play, not AFTER the play. I also don't mean that our team does not care or does not try. Of course they do.

Instead, we seem to lack that extra edge in effort and energy during the play that leads to victories: both on defense and on offense. Our effort is not horrible or completely absent, just not enough to win consistently: going for extra yards on every play; hitting ball carriers hard while completely wrapping them up; diving for a loose balls faster and more aggressively than your opponent; and, most importantly, blocking, rushing, and tackling harder than the other guys. That extra effort was apparent last year not just in the results, but in what produced those results. This year, we have moments of brilliant effort, but not enough of them. It seems like we relaxed a bit after the Rose Bowl re-validated our football program.

The most apparent lack of effort this year is where most people do not notice it: our lines, both defensive and offensive. For all the accolades people place on position players, football is and always will be, fundamentally, a game of linemen: control the lines, and you control the game. The difference in our losses stems not from size or talent, but effort: focused, explosive, consistent effort on each and every play. Our defensive and offensive lines simply get out-played on effort far too often. Holes do not materialize on offense, but they do on defense. Our pass protection needs to rely on Juice's mobility, whereas our defensive line pressure does not consistently break down their pass protection and force their quarterback to scramble often enough.

That said, the above points mostly emphasize frustration over how we lost a winnable game, not how we are so awful and pathetic like we were four years ago. Four years ago, we wouldn't have been in this game. Illinois still has one of the most high-powered, explosive offenses in college football. Our defense is talented enough and strong enough to rise to the occasion. Our recruiting is still rather amazing; and we have several very talented freshman on this team, which featured freshman starters the past two years, as well. The future is still bright, and Illinois is still on an upward trend.

Illinois Beats Iowa 27-24; One Win Away From Bowl Eligibility

November 3, 2008

Illinois beat Iowa on a last-minute field goal, 27-24. Illinois advanced to 3-3 in the Big Ten, and 5-4 on the season. With three games remaining, one more win makes Illinois bowl eligible. Illinois next plays Western Michigan in Detroit. We will gather at Third Base at 10:45 this Saturday to watch the Western Michigan game. The game is only available through ESPN Gameplan and online at ESPN360. Please arrive early so we do not have any problems keeping the tables Third Base is reserving for us.

As for the Iowa win, the big take-away point is that we finally did to another team what has happened to us: we won a game where the other team out-performed us statistically by scoring touchdowns when we had the chance instead of turning the ball over or settling for a field goal. In three of our four losses, Illinois put up amazing offensive numbers, and in the fourth our offense still gained a lot of yards but just didn't score enough; in the loss to Minnesota, in particular, Illinois out-gained Minnesota by nearly 2 to 1. The problem has been our ability to score points after we move the ball downfield, not with moving the ball downfield.

In this game, the roles were switched. Iowa moved the ball against us, but could not score. Iowa had possession 34 minutes to our 26 minutes. Iowa converted 21 first downs to our 14. Iowa rushed for 138 yards, more than twice our 60 yards rushing. Illinois had 3 more total yards than Iowa, but only because of 50-yard touchdown pass to Fred Sykes. Iowa also started three second quarter drives on our side of the field, winning the battle for field position. In terms of a ball-control strategy, Iowa clearly out-played us and controlled the ball better than we did.

However, Iowa did not score touchdowns when they had the chance. On four key drives, Iowa drove deep into Illinois territory (all inside the 12 yard-line, three inside the 7 yard-line, and one to the one-yard line), and only got three field goals (missing a fourth attempt). Meanwhile, Illinois did not drive downfield nearly as easily, but scored touchdowns in response to those field goals to march to a 24-9 fourth quarter lead. Illinois did not squander any scoring opportunity.

We also scored off turnovers that we forced--most particularly a five yard touchdown return of a fantastic strip of the quarterback by Dere Hicks--instead of giving up points off turnovers deep in our territory.

But then in the fourth quarter the second theme emerged from this game: a battle of which team wanted to lose this game more.

Even though our defense had held Iowa to only three field goals the first three quarters, we suddenly allowed them to score two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter to tie the game. Not to be out-done, Iowa then played a loose, "prevent defense" to allow us to drive down the field to kick a 46 yard field goal with 24 seconds left to lead 27-24. (It was a perfect kick that we knew was good right off the kicker's foot: straight through the goalposts, with plenty of room to spare.)

But even then, we squib-kicked the ensuing kickoff--instead of kicking it high or deep to prevent a return--which should have given Iowa great field position and time to get in position to kick a tying field goal. (Squib kicks are usually used with less than 10 seconds remaining or when you have faith in your special teams kick coverage, neither of which applied). But, alas, Iowa wanted to lose the game more than we did because the Iowa return man--with no Illini coverage players within 20 yards of him--inexplicably fell on the squib kick deep in Iowa territory instead of taking it and running it back to midfield or deeper.

The positive part about the Iowa win is that we had not beaten Iowa in a while. We also took advantage of our scoring opportunities and forced Iowa to squander theirs. Finally, our defense really played well for the first three quarters, limiting Iowa to three field goals and scoring a touchdown off a turnover deep in Iowa's territory.

Illinois next plays the Western Michigan University Broncos, a decent mid-major team from Kalamazoo from which an ex-girlfriend of mine actually graduated (an "ex" of the good mojo kind, not bad, nasty, bitterness kind). Western Michigan is 7-2 on the year, but don't let that record fool you. Six of their seven wins were over teams with losing records. Of the three teams they played with winning records, they lost two and won the other only in overtime; and that team, Buffalo, only has a 5-4 record and, itself, has not beaten a team with a winning record.

Although we similarly have beaten up teams with losing records, we also have beaten Iowa (5-4 overall, and a major conference team) and Louisiana-Lafayette. Louisiana-Lafayette now is 4-0 in its conference, which is comparable to Western Michigan's conference. Given the way we tried to lose to Iowa, no game is a sure-fire guarantee and this game is loseable. But Illinois should be able to win it and become bowl eligible.

Lawrence Page

Austin Illini

November 10, 2008

Illinois lost to Western Michigan, 23-17, when a fourth-quarter drive sputtered at the Western Michigan 18 yard line with less than 2 minutes to play. Illinois next plays Ohio State in Champaign on the final home game of the season. We will gather at Third Base at 10:45 to watch the Ohio State game on ESPNHD. The game again conflicts with the Texas game, so please come early and help us reserve space (and make it easier on the Third Base staff who has been great to us this year by reserving space for us in a crowded Texas bar).

No need to candy-coat it: losing to Western Michigan is nothing but embarrassing and a huge setback for our team. First, we played in front of the smallest crowd to watch an Illini game since the War years: that's World War Two in the 1940s, to be specific. Not exactly an inspiring environment. Second, we beat Michigan in their home stadium, but lose to Western Michigan on a neutral field. Western Michigan is at best the fourth best state-school team in Michigan (after Michigan, Michigan State, and Central Michigan (which beat Western Michigan two weeks earlier)). Even though Western Michigan played its heart out and deserved to win, and even though Western Michigan is a fairly decent "mid-major" team, we clearly lost a game we "shoulda" won.

The difference in the game came down most significantly to Juice's two second-quarter interceptions. Both interceptions were clear mistakes by Juice, not tipped passes or sensational defensive plays, and both interceptions really hurt us badly. Western Michigan scored its only touchdowns off those interceptions: one caught at the 40, and the other caught deep in Western Michigan territory but run back to midfield. For the rest of the entire game, Western Michigan could only put together three field goals.

Not only did those turnovers give Western Michigan their only touchdowns, but the second interception stopped a potential touchdown drive of our own deep in Western Michigan's territory. Even without considering how much those plays changed the momentum and complexion of the game, the game realistically coulda, shoulda, woulda been a 24-9 drubbing, not a 23-17 loss.

Even after giving Western Michigan those 14 points (and taking away our own 7 to 14 points when interceptions stifled drives of our own), Illinois still managed to claw back into the game and had a chance to win on the final drive with a touchdown. Although pinned back at its own 1 yard line to start the drive, Illinois slashed through the Western Michigan defense and drove 81 yards to the Western Michigan 18 yard line in less than a minute, mostly on a 54-yard pass to Judson. But with just under two minutes remaining, Illinois lost the ball on downs on four straight incomplete passes.

The other deciding factor just simply came down to intensity and effort. Western Michigan clearly came to play hard and treated this game as the most important game on their schedule; in contrast, Illinois not only came out with less effort, we also looked completely shell-shocked and did not recover enough from our second quarter mistakes that gave Western Michigan 17 unanswered points and a 20-7 halftime lead.

Now, I don't want to sound like an eternal optimist or make excuses for a bad loss. I even agree that some Illinois fans have a tendency to accept mediocrity, and that tendency helps keep our teams from maintaining excellence. But that also doesn't mean the sky is falling, Chicken Little. The following provide three reasons for optimism.

Just as a program should not accept mediocrity, knee-jerk pessimism and Chicken-Little reactions also do not create a winning program, either, and to the extent that a fan-base helps create an atmosphere of winning or losing, it behooves us to keep our heads on straight as fans. I understand the importance of emphasizing the importance of winning in a short, 12 game season, but exaggerating the devastation of losses while a program is still rebuilding from the gutter simply creates unrealistic expectations. It does not help either the team or our own emotional stability as fans.

The second point is that even our losses this year give us reasons to remain optimistic. Despite our obvious problems this year, this year's losses are NOTHING like our losses just three or four years ago: losses in which we not only lost, but were out-played in every aspect of the game. Those losses gave us no moral victories, nothing to appreciate and nothing to look forward to.

In contrast, we have been competitive and retained a chance to win deep into the fourth quarter of each and every loss this season. In that sense, our losses this season are more like our losses two years ago than three years ago. Those who did not pay attention two years ago were shocked to see us emerge last year with a 9-3 regular season. But those who paid attention knew that the seeds for last year's breakout season were rather apparent in our "dismal" 2-10 season two years ago.

Likewise, those who pay attention solely to our record this year do not appreciate just how close we are to being a great team, and that we nonetheless have the talent and ability to beat Ohio State and (definitely) Northwestern, even if Ohio State and Northwestern plays their best games. If we play Ohio State like we played Penn State or Missouri, we should win. Ohio State is a step down from those two teams, both of which we played at the peak of their dominance. In turn, Northwestern is several steps down from Ohio State, as manifested by Ohio State's 45-10 victory last week.

Granted, we made some BAD BAD mistakes in our losses, but as anyone who has played sports knows, that is what happens when you lose games! Inevitably, there are key plays that contribute to the loss, and you re-live the few big gaffs (especially at the end of the game) and completely overlook the several good or great plays that kept you competitive so that you remain in a position where those few mistakes could cost us the game. and learning from those mistakes is necessary to learning how to not make hem the next time. However, just as importantly from both a player's and a fan's perspective, obsessively doing so without perspective creates a self-fulfilling, losing state of mind that emphasizes mistakes over accomplishments.

We have been two or three plays away from winning each and every game we lost this year. Against WMU, take away those two interceptions and WMU does not get the ball for their two touchdown drives: the only touchdowns they scored against us all game. Take away the kickoff return for a touchdown after we scored a field goal, and the complexion of the Missouri loss changes entirely. Take away the special teams gaffs in the Penn State game (including a kickoff run-back for a touchdown after we had clearly taken the momentum), and that game changes. Take away the turnovers against Minnesota inside our red zone, and we win that game easily. Take away one or two of Juice's three interceptions, and we would have won the Wisconsin game (just like the WMU game).

The frustrating part is not that we are so miserably awful; it is that we are so tantalizingly close to winning so many winnable games, yet we make enough key mistakes to lose those games.

But it is not all one-sided against us. We have done it to other teams. Take away Iowa's turnover inside their five that we returned for a touchdown, and that game is a completely different game. Take away our last-minute field goal and two fumbles we stripped from Louisiana Lafayette, and we would have lost that game. Most importantly, the only blowouts so far this year (that did not come down to a few key plays on either side) have been in our favor: our wins over Eastern Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana. Every loss was "winnable," but not every win was "losable."

Jim Rome has personified the pompous, bombastic sports talk radio "personality" better than anyone. He pretends to know with certainty not only what is going on, but also what will go on, and states his opinion with such sardonic confidence and bravado that some people adopt that attitude about discussing and thinking about sports. And so we hear predictions like "Illinois has NO CHANCE against Ohio State," or, "If Illinois can't beat Western Michigan, they're not going to beat Ohio State OR Northwestern."

Not only is Jim Rome (and his kind) dead wrong most of the time, but even when they are correct, it is mostly by accident. A stopped clock is correct twice a day, and few such "analysts" do much better than flipping a coin. Moreover, I would not even want to live in Jim Rome's world of bombastic certainty. Ignorantly but boldly professing to know what will happen takes all the fun out of watching sports.

Despite all our frustrations, NOBODY knows what will happen on Saturday against Ohio State. Yes, the fact that we have "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" a few times this season does make it less likely that we will win, but we still need to play the game. Consider:

Iowa was not "supposed to" beat Penn State.

Mississippi was not "supposed to" beat Florida AT Florida.

We were not "supposed to" beat Ohio State last year.

The Cubs were "supposed to" win the World Series. (Ugh! Sorry about that reminder....)

The point is, THAT IS WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES, and that is why I enjoy watching sports. "Lesser" teams can beat "better' teams. Indeed, when I play softball, I enjoy the games most when I assess that the other team has better "talent," but we out-play them and win, anyway. Strategy, effort, and focus wins games, not just pre-determined talent or (certainly not) previous win-loss records. Jim Rome and his kind take the fun out of sports, and sap the life out of, say, the thrill of Illinois' impressive and decisive victory over Ohio State just last year, which, need I remind you, WAS NOT "SUPPOSED TO" happen.

So come out and join us for the best win of the year against Ohio State: the win that salvages our season and gives us a chance to go 7-5 on the regular season, and possibly 8-5 after our bowl game victory. Despite how frustrating this season has been, we remain poised to go 8-5, which would be right in line with some of the best expectations for this year, and just one game different from our 9-4 season last year.

Lawrence Page

Austin Illini

Illini Fall to 5-6; Need Win Against Northwestern to Become Bowl Eligible

November 18, 2008

Illinois lost to Ohio State last week, 30-20, to drop to 5-6 on the season. Illinois plays its final regular season game at Northwestern this Saturday. We will gather at Third Base to watch the Northwestern game at 2:15 on the Big Ten Network.

As for the Ohio State game, only two things need be said. First, stop the damn run. Ohio State is a running team, Pryor is a running quarterback and a bad passer, the weather was awful for passing, so we coulda shoulda woulda known they would run the ball. They did, running the ball for 52 out of 62 offensive plays. And it worked. Ohio State gained 205 of its 354 total yards on the ground. We did not stop the run effectively enough.

Second, Illinois again made a few huge, key mistakes that cost them another game it coulda, shoulda, woulda won. Illinois essentially gave Ohio State 23 easy first half points: two touchdowns off turnovers, another by giving Ohio State great field position off a safety, and then the safety itself. The first touchdown came after Ohio State recovered a Juice Williams fumble deep in our own territory at our own 19 yard-line. Then, pinned deep in our own territory again, our special teams forgot to block on a punt from our 11 yard-line, and our punter took his casual time punting the ball (several studder steps) to allow Ohio State to block the punt into our endzone for a safety. Because of the strong headwind, the ensuing punt-kickoff gave the ball to Ohio State at our 43 yard line. Give them a short field like that, and they will have an easier time scoring. Then Ohio State picked a Juice WIlliams pass and drove down the field for another touchdown.

Burying ourselves in a 23-7 first-half hole is not the way to beat a team like Ohio State.

Illinois did not commit any turnovers or significant special teams gaffs in the second half, and held Ohio State to only one second-half score. However, our offense could not score any more than a last-minute touchdown to make the game seem closer than it was.

So Illinois again outgained an opponent significantly in a losing effort. Illinois had 455 total yards, Ohio State 354. Unfortunately, they have not changed the rules, and scoring actually still matters.

So where do we stand? First, this season is disappointing, but it has not been disasterous. We are still just two years off finishing 2-10 at the bottown of the Big Ten, and every loss this year came down to committing a few key mistakes that turned a win into a loss. We have a great deal of talent on both offense and defense, and most of it returns next year; we just need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

Second, as for this year, Illinois still needs one win to become bowl eligible. Northwestern is not the usual patsy, but it is not as good as its 8-3 record indicates. It has been banged up badly by injuries this season, including to its starting quarterback. Northwestern did not play Penn State or Wisconsin, two of the better teams in the Big Ten to whom we lost. Northwestern also barely beat Duke and Syracuse as part of its non-conference schedule, perhaps the two worst major-conference teams in college football this year. Northwestern also lost to Indiana, whom we crushed, and was completely dominated by Ohio State, whom we played fairly closely, except for the 23 first-half points we spotted them. If we avoid making the key mistakes that have lost all our close games this year, we should be able to handle Northwestern. It is not a guaranteed win, but it is even less of a guaranteed loss.

As for bowl games, becomming bowl eligible does not guarantee a bowl game; it just makes us eligible. Many rumors have flown around regarding whether Illinois has a chance for a bowl game at 6-6. Many pessimists emphasize that Iowa did not go to a bowl game last year despite finishing 6-6.

Most importantly, there is confusion over whether the Big Ten bowls may select us at 6-6 over the four teams that will finish 7-5 or 8-4. Arguably, Illinois' loss to Missouri is more impressive than Minnesota's, Wisconsin's, Iowa's, and Northwestern's four wins over four non-conference patsies. However, an NCAA rule apparently existed that prohibited picking a 6-6 team over a 7-5 team (which is why Iowa stayed home last year), but some journalists have claimed that rule is not in effect this year, others claim it is. No matter what you read about Illinois' bowl chances, don't believe any of it until after this week's games play out and we know where we really stand.

But one thing is clear. The Big Ten has six non-BCS bowl tie-in guarantees. If two Big Ten Teams get into the BCS, then the Big Ten will have eight bowl game commitments. If we win on Saturday, then the Big Ten will only have eight bowl-eligible teams: Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue only have 3 wins with one game remaining. Last year's scare-story of Iowa not going to a bowl game at 6-6 happened when 10 of the 11 Big Ten teams were bowl-eligible.

Thus, if we win and the BCS selects two Big Ten teams, we should play in the Motor CIty Bowl (Detroit) or the Insight Bowl (Tempe, Arizona), and perhaps even the Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando, Florida).

So we not only want an Illini win this weekend, we also want the rest of the games to pan out so that the Big Ten gets two BCS selections. The Big 12 and the SEC will get two at-large selections, but the ACC, Big East, and the Pac Ten are all horrible this year. The worst case scenario would be for Oregon State to win out and go to the Rose Bowl as the Pac Ten champion. In that case, USC would get an at-large BCS bid, possibly at the expense of a Big Ten at-large team. As for our own conference, Penn State and Ohio State winning provides the best case scenario, but a Michigan State win would still leave Penn State and Ohio State as legitimate at-large contenders.

Even if the BCS does not take a second Big Ten team, we still might earn one of the seven Big Ten bowl guaranteed spots if we are picked over Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa. It depends on whether that "no 6-6 team selected over a 7-5 team in the same conference" rule still exists. If it does not, then I would not rule it out.

Finally, even if the Big Ten's seven guaranteed bowl games do not include us, there are several independent bowl spots available to us. Given that we played in the Rose Bowl last year, that our fans travel well, we have star players who get national attention, and we have played one of the tougher schedules in college football this year, we have a great shot at being seleceted as an independent. Some analysts predict we would go to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, which I frankly would prefer over returning to Detroit to play a tougher mid-major team than Western Michigan.

Nobody knows right now, most importantly because we need to beat Northwestern in Evanston on Saturday to even become bowl-eligible. Come join us for the final regular season game.

Illinois football goes back over a century of tradition, with 4 National Championship and Red Grange (kicking, below), Dick Butkus, and Simeon Rice among some of our most prominent football Alumni.  With the hiring of Ron Zook and the overhaul of the football program, we have high hopes for the future.  

Memorial Stadium, built in the 1920s as a tribute to World War One veterans, was also the home of the Chicago Bears a few years ago when Soldier Field was being rebuilt.  As opposed to many bowl-shaped stadiums where two-thirds of the seats are behind the end zones, Memorial Stadium features two giant balconies so as to place more than two-thirds of the seats where they belong: between the goal lines.  

Tailgating outside Memorial Stadium is also a time-honored tradition.  Because Memorial Stadium is located on the far Southern end of campus next to the Intramural fields, most people tailgate together in a large field, as opposed to in crowded concrete parking lots. 

Ron Zook recruited the 2006 National Championship team at Florida; and, even handicapped by an awful record, Ron Zook brought us one of the best 2007 recruiting classes in the Big Ten, no less the country.  Illinois also went from being completely out-played in every aspect of almost every game in 2004 and 2005 to being competitive in all but one game in 2006 and needing only to significantly improve special teams to become a contending team.  In 2007, Illinois beat #1 Ohio State at Ohio State to cap off a magical season that ended with a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Football is back at Illinois, and the winning tradition of Red Grange, Dick Butkus, and Simeon Rice continues!

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